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Professor Bilal M. Ayyub, Director of the Center for Technology & Systems Management delivered a seminar at the meeting of the Association of Government Toxicologists at the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD, on October 21, 2010. This seminar on ?Uncertainty Sources, Types and Quantification Models for Risk Studies? provides an overview of risk analysis and management to examine knowledge reliability based on ignorance and uncertainty analyses. It summarizes formalized philosophical and mathematical frameworks for their analyses using model prediction and validation as an example. Two risk studies are summarized: the first on hurricane-prone regions and the second on homeland security. It summarizes foundational bases for assessing the reliability of knowledge constructed as a collective set of justified true beliefs, and offers open questions as concluding remarks. Additional information on the Association of Government Toxicologists can be viewed at www.agovtox.org.
October 20, 2010
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